The Future Looks Like Waste

[3278]

This article is just another in a long line of signs that our first-world global culture has so many resources that it feels like it can waste them. Tribesmen don't debate the morality of killing deer for food, because they cannot afford to; only when you have surplus do you have the luxury of such waste. And only when you have excess can you set yourself down the Road to Rome and watch your superculture melt down, worried about the human rights of machines.

Am I alone in seeing this, the near-inevitable destruction of our way of life due to inefficiency brought on my excess? Am I the only person who things the United States is the next Roman Empire, with Europe recast either as another Rome, or Europe all over again? What will happen to the world if, in our decadence, the [current] first world falls?

[Instant Cash]

I have been saying for years that the US is a lot like the roman empire.

And as Rome fell, so shall we.

[Salvation122]

Did... did you link to the wrong article? Because this one is about soldiers "bonding" with ordinance disposal robots that routinely save their lives, which strikes me as entirely normal. There's no discussion of the morality in "killing" the robots, except for maybe the introduction, when the general calls the land-mine seeker getting blown the hell up inhumane.

[3278]

Did... did you link to the wrong article? Because this one is about soldiers "bonding" with ordinance disposal robots that routinely save their lives, which strikes me as entirely normal.

I linked to the correct article, yes. And it strikes me as entirely normal, too. That's the problem.

[TLM]

I have been saying for years that the US is a lot like the roman empire.

And as Rome fell, so shall we.

As have I. But the decline and fall happens with every empire eventually, some are just a little more resistant than others. Right now the USA can still expect several decades of progress and prosperity (and waste), and possibly centuries, assuming that the simile holds true. Europe could, I suppose, be likened to Egypt or the Seleucids, or even Greece; Ancient cultures, dependent on the protection of their ally/conqueror, though that's possibly more of a stretch.

As for what will happen when the US falls, it'd depend entirely on everyone else really. Though I severely doubt it, Europe could go to the fore again or, more likely in my opinion, India or China would supplant it as the dominant power, shifting the balance in favour of Asia again. There're way, way too many unknowns, though.

[3278]

My long-term bet at the moment is China, because it appears like, for the moment, they want it more. India is the more logical choice, though.

[Daki]

I'm still not sure on China. They are growing at a phenominal rate but it doesn't seem controlled.

India is an interesting case. I was at a conference last year where they were speaking about the growth in that country. I'm not sure what the extent is, but you can say firms' outsourcing to that country helped with their boom. Now companies are shifting away from India for outsourcing because the cost savings are no longer there.

With the outsourcing shifting to countries like the Phillippines and former Easter block countries in Europe, I wonder how India's economy will cope.

[DV8]

India's economy sees a growth of 12% in certain quarters, but they're realising that type of growth by ignoring the lack of welfare of their most impoverished, and neglecting solid investments in infrastructure (water-works, mostly). It's kind of like a company showing awesome quarterly liquidity results right after they sold a big division.

[jo_alex]

With the outsourcing shifting to countries like the Phillippines and former Easter block countries in Europe, I wonder how India's economy will cope.

The costs of labor are still cheaper in former Easter block countries in Europe than in the rest of it, that is true. But the differences decrease with every year. Plus most of these countries are already in EU which means you need to comply with various EU regulations while setting up/moving your business thereto. I think interest in India will not be lost so quickly.

[Anguirel]

Regarding the article - naming and bonding with various non-humans has happened for millenia. Horsemen certainly bonded with their mounts, and would only want to ride their own mount. Kennelmasters and wardogs, equally so. Regardless of the fact that every sword in the armory shoudl be nearly identical, you know soldiers would want to take their own sword. This has carried on through the centuries. The gear has changed, but the roles that gear occupies hasn't, and the behavior of the soldiers hasn't, either.

The Marines talk about their rifle as being their best friend. Ship captains and fighter pilots have named and decorated their ships and planes since the start of such travel. Good ships that survive until they become obsolete are retired with honor, not simply scrapped and the crew reassigned. So yes, this is not only normal, it's exactly the same as it has always been.

The biggest difference is awarding medals to the machines. I'm not sure if a horse ever got a medal for valor in battle, or a search and retrieval dog got one for rescue under fire... I suppose Balto got a statue and a race... and a movie. So that's something close.

That all said, I do think it's about time the AI / philosophy of personhood debate escpaed academia and sci-fi a little more into real settings and more mainstream settings. So on that end, I'm glad to see it in a Washington Post article. There's every reason to worry about the person-rights (they aren't human,so don't get "human rights" per se) of machines. Defining personhood and what constitutes a being deserving of rights is important, not only in the context of machines and human-designed non-human (artificial) intelligence, but also in the case of our likely eventual encounter with an alien species (not necessarily them coming to us).

Regarding the question - not alone, certainly, in making comparisons to the Roman Empire. Though we're still in the Republic phase, there's certainly some who wonder when a president will completely seize power to become emperor. For a short while, the liberal nutjobs (specifically the nutjob ones here - not all liberals are such, despite what Moo might say) thought Bush was going to do so. And less nutjobby people were at least concerned regarding it. But yes, the concern is there -- however, along with the concern is the ability for people to watch and act to prevent a repeat of that meltdown.

As a side note, I'd like to object to your statement that tribesmen don't debate the morality of killing a deer. I believe if you study various cultures that lived in tribal systems, many included nature worship and some even asked the spirit of the deer to forgive them for their need to hunt it. Some cultures went vegetarian long before there was "excess", per se. Well past tribal culture, but still in ancient culture, you'd find Jainists who debated the morality of swatting a fly or even harming a plant long before Christ ever got around to rabble rousing around Jerusalem.

Should the United States fail (and it's unlikely to do so barring an outside influence - and it has been pretty proactive in preventing outside influences from becoming powerful enough to try -- Rome only fell because it couldn't control enough territory to stop the barbarians entirely, the decadence simply allowed the barbarians to sweep through once they made it inside), and the world still exist afterwards more or less intact as it is now, I'd go with Japan being the leading exporter of culture, assuming they survive the collapse of the US. They already do a lot of it.

China will be powerful, sure, but there's too much of that country that lives out of touch with the modern world for it to realitstically take over in any sense.

India is my next guess for exporter of culture and dominance in scientific and technolgical pursuits.

Europe, to my mind, has lost any sense of dominance in a global arena. They're three steps farther along the decadence/collapse road, debating all manner of finer points and wrapping every action up in legislation.

Nothing in Africa has the cohesion to manage to come to serious power.

Portions of Brazil and Chile are probably doing well enough that they'd be able to make a serious claim for the hemisphere, but probably not global.

Canada only has Adam Fucking Jury. Without cloning, there simply isn't enough Jury to enable Canadian dominance.

Mexico will be too busy taking over the former US to make a global play.