Why do I say this?
Sun-Tzu wrote:
We are unable to effect victory, because the guerrillas have not given us the oppurtunity for victory. Our victory resides in their actions, and not our own.Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.
4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.
Does this imply that we should leave Iraq, as we cannot win? NO. For the insurgents are in the same shoes as us. They cannot win, but can only make themselves unable to be conquered.
Call it a waiting game. The guerrillas are waiting for their attacks to cause enough pain through low-intensity conflict that our populace will be disgusted with this war, and force our soldiers to withdraw. At that point, the guerrillas will emerges, become a conventional force and re-take Iraq.
What can we do to prevent this? Alot. As citizens of this country, we can stand behind the war, and not waver in our conviction. We are unable to be defeated, yet we cannot defeat our enemy. We must wait for them to expose themselves and then we will strike.
Militarily, what can be done? Not anything which isn't already being done. Sweeps of areas suspected of harbouring insurgents. Goodwill missions where we build schools and hospitals. And keeping morale up. That's why support from the people at home is imperitive. Increasing intelligence.
The insurgents have come across a particularly effective means of combating our troops in the roadside bomb. It's not something that is easily countered, and the risk to the insurgents is small. Much smaller than performing ambushes and storming police stations. Just blow things up.
The greatest ally of the insurgent is fear and doubt. Without a definiteive enemy, everyone becomes an enemy to our soldiers. When there is no protection of law, then there is no reason for the common Iraqi to have faith in their government. And this is what the insurgents require to live. The require a distrust between Iraqi and Occupation forces. Without that, they would be defeated.
Now, I still believe that Saddam Hussein's governement is conducting the majority of these operations. Why? It's part of the tactics they were taught by the Soviet military. A combination of conventional and unconventional warfare. In addition, many Ba'aath party regional leaders remain uncaptured. These are the men who were in charge of orginizing the resistance.
Where did the republican guard go? Expecially the Special Republican Guard? These soldiers were loyal to saddam, and recieved training in conducint both insurgent and ocunter-insurgent operations. Where did the 100,000+ soldiers that made up the Republican Guard GO?
